《台北股市》外資喜惡榜 這群骨折價好誘人
【時報-台北電】台股上周跌破32年前12682高點,今年來指數從最高到最低跌近6000點,28日台積電等大型權值股再被提款,加上金融三業賣台股救淨值,指數終場下跌137.95點,收12,788.42點,周線連三黑。
Meta、Amazon釋出財報及展望不如預期,加上美國聯準會即將升息,市場觀望氣氛濃厚壓抑台股走勢,台股數度拚回萬三受阻,失守5日及10日短期均線,月線下彎。外資繼續偏空台股,28日外資(不含外資自營商)賣超118億元,扭轉先前連2買的態度,全周賣超104.08億元,本月累計賣超將進千億元。
上周五外資賣超排行個股中,群創(3481)賣超31988張,台積電(2330)賣超11961張,陽明(2609)賣超11386張,成為前三大提款機,南僑(1702)、聯電(2303)、長榮航(2618)、台泥(1101)、長榮(2603)、旺宏(2337)均位列其中。買超排行之中,幾乎是金控的天下,新光金(2888)買超4482張、兆豐金(2886)買超3628張、永豐金(2890)買超2835張、元大金(2885)買超2155張。
金融股股價骨折,三大法人對金融股買進動作轉為積極,近周三大法人對永豐金、新光金、第一金、開發金、元大金、兆豐金、國泰金及合庫金等八檔,買超都逾萬張;近月以來,三大法人對台企銀買超張數更超過12萬張,富邦金、國泰金及中再保的賣超張數,也明顯縮小,另對新光產、台產及旺旺保等也都呈現買超。
台股上檔壓力重重,量能表線持續低迷,但大盤波段跌幅已深、年線負乖離率超過20%,短線可望迎來跌深反彈,其中公股金控等族群有望挾選舉行情逆流而上,尤其據過往經驗,台股在近九次縣市長選舉前20日上漲機率高達78%,反彈潛力值得期待。此外,生技、綠能、軍工、基建、觀光等族群在選舉行情中受惠。
凱基投顧指出,雖然上周五收跌137點導致短期均線得而復失,但日KD指標仍維持交叉向上,而且已脫離低檔鈍化區,跌深反彈架構尚未完全遭到破壞,但本周需持續觀察反彈力道,若能突破上周一(10/24)黑K高點13027點,後市才有機會擴大反彈反空間,否則下檔仍將回測12629點,進行擴底格局。(編輯:張嘉倚)
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